NMDC Steel Limited is a public sector steel producer and a subsidiary of the National Mineral Development Corporation (NMDC), which is under the administrative control of the Ministry of Steel, Government of India. Headquartered in Nagarnar, Chhattisgarh, the company operates an integrated steel plant with a capacity of 3 million tonnes per annum (MTPA), producing high-quality long products like TMT bars, wire rods, and structural steel. As of January 2026, NMDC Steel is undergoing a critical turnaround phase—marked by strong sales growth (178.88%) but deep losses (ROE: –16.60%), driven by high input costs, operational inefficiencies, and legacy debt. This article provides a realistic outlook on the NMDC Steel share price target 2026–2030.
NMDC Steel: Company Overview
- Founded: 2015 (as a demerged entity from NMDC)
- Chairman & Managing Director: Shri Joydeep Dasgupta
- NSE Symbol: NSLNISP
- Core Business:
- Long steel products (TMT bars, wire rods – 90%)
- Structural steel and billets (10%)
- Market Position: Fully owned PSU; key supplier to infrastructure and construction sectors
NMDC Steel benefits from a captive iron ore supply from its parent NMDC, reducing raw material volatility. However, it faces challenges in cost competitiveness against private players like Tata Steel and JSW Steel.
NMDC Steel: Key Financial Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | ₹39.55 |
| Market Capitalization | ₹11,596.41 Cr |
| No. of Shares Outstanding | 293.06 Cr |
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | Not applicable (negative EPS) |
| P/B Ratio | 0.89 |
| EPS (TTM) | –₹4.51 |
| Book Value (TTM) | ₹44.45 |
| ROE | –16.60% |
| ROCE | –12.98% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Face Value | ₹10 |
| Cash | ₹907.64 Cr |
| Debt | ₹5,897.64 Cr |
| Promoter Holding | 60.79% |
| Sales Growth (YoY) | 178.88% |
| Profit Growth (YoY) | –52.13% |
Note on Sales Growth: The 178% sales surge stems from higher production volumes post-commissioning of Phase II and improved offtake—but margins remain negative due to high coking coal and power costs.
NMDC Steel Share Price Target Forecast (2026–2030)
| Year | Target Price Range (₹) |
|---|---|
| 2026 | ₹42 – ₹48 |
| 2027 | ₹45 – ₹53 |
| 2028 | ₹48 – ₹60 |
| 2029 | ₹51 – ₹68 |
| 2030 | ₹54 – ₹75 |
Important: These targets assume successful cost rationalization, EBITDA breakeven by FY27, and no further equity dilution. If the turnaround stalls, the stock may trade sideways near book value.
NMDC Steel Share Price Target 2026
| Year | Share Price Target 1 | Share Price Target 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ₹42 | ₹48 |
NMDC Steel remains unprofitable with negative ROE and ROCE, but its P/B of 0.89x (below book value) offers a downside cushion. The 2026 target range assumes:
- Continued volume ramp-up at Nagarnar plant
- Stable iron ore linkage from NMDC
- No major working capital crunch
This is a turnaround bet, not a fundamental investment.
NMDC Steel Share Price Target 2027
| Year | Share Price Target 1 | Share Price Target 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ₹45 | ₹53 |
If the company achieves EBITDA positivity through energy efficiency and logistics optimization, investor sentiment may improve. However, no dividends or earnings are expected before 2028.
NMDC Steel Share Price Target 2028
| Year | Share Price Target 1 | Share Price Target 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2028 | ₹48 | ₹60 |
By 2028, benefits from full-capacity utilization and export diversification should reflect in cash flows. A P/B of 1.0–1.1x on projected book value (~₹48–₹52) supports the ₹48–₹60 band.
NMDC Steel Share Price Target 2029
| Year | Share Price Target 1 | Share Price Target 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2029 | ₹51 | ₹68 |
Long-term tailwinds include India’s infrastructure push and PLI for specialty steel. If competition doesn’t erode pricing, EPS could turn positive (~₹1–₹2) by FY29. At a P/B of 1.1–1.2x, the 2029 target is ₹51–₹68.
NMDC Steel Share Price Target 2030
| Year | Share Price Target 1 | Share Price Target 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2030 | ₹54 | ₹75 |
Over a five-year horizon, NMDC Steel’s upside is capped by execution risk but supported by sovereign backing. A terminal P/B of 1.2–1.3x on FY30 book value (~₹55–₹60) justifies the ₹54–₹75 range.
NMDC Steel: Shareholding Pattern
| Category | Holding (%) |
|---|---|
| Promoters (Govt. of India via NMDC) | 60.79% |
| Public & Retail | 18.73% |
| Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) | 15.66% |
| Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) | 4.81% |
High promoter and DII holding reflects policy alignment and institutional confidence in the turnaround.
NMDC Steel: Strengths vs Risks
Strengths:
- Captive iron ore supply from NMDC reduces input risk
- Trading below book value (P/B: 0.89)
- Strategic importance to India’s steel self-reliance
- Debt reduced from ₹7,200 Cr (2023) to ₹5,898 Cr (2025)
Risks:
- Negative ROE (–16.6%) and ROCE (–12.98%)
- High energy intensity and logistics costs
- Contingent liabilities of ₹3,603 Cr require monitoring
- Intense competition from private steelmakers
Investment Suitability
| Factor | Assessment |
|---|---|
| Risk Profile | High |
| Ideal Time Horizon | 5+ years (speculative) |
| Volatility | Higher than market average |
| Dividend/Income Potential | None (0% yield) |
| Best For | Value investors betting on PSU steel turnaround |
Final Verdict
NMDC Steel is a distressed PSU undergoing restructuring. Its current valuation offers limited downside, but upside depends entirely on operational execution.
Our NMDC Steel share price target 2026–2030 (₹42 to ₹75) reflects cautious optimism—rooted in asset value but tempered by earnings uncertainty. Upside is substantial if cost discipline improves; downside is cushioned by book value support.
Disclaimer: Price targets are estimates based on publicly available data and sector analysis. They are not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before making decisions.
Sources
- Screener.in – NMDC Steel Consolidated Page (FY2025 + TTM)
- Finology Ticker – NSLNISP Financials & Analysis
- Groww.in – NMDC Steel Stock Profile
- Ministry of Steel – National Steel Policy 2023
- NMDC Annual Report FY2025
