Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) is a Maharatna public sector undertaking under the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, Government of India. Incorporated in 1952, HPCL operates across the entire hydrocarbon value chain—refining crude oil, marketing petroleum products, and managing exploration & production (E&P) blocks. It owns India’s largest lube refinery, the second-largest retail fuel network (over 22,000 outlets), and a significant cross-country pipeline infrastructure. Despite recent earnings volatility due to inventory losses and refining margin pressure, HPCL remains a key player in India’s energy ecosystem. This article provides a data-backed outlook on the HPCL share price target 2026–2030.
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd: Company Overview
- Founded: 1952
- Headquarters: Mumbai, Maharashtra
- Key Segments: Refining, Fuel Marketing, Lubricants, LPG, Pipelines, E&P
- Strategic Assets:
- Mumbai Refinery (7.5 MMTPA) + Visakh Refinery (8.3 MMTPA)
- 22,000+ retail outlets (2nd largest in India)
- Largest lube oil plant in Asia
- Ownership: Government of India holds 54.9%—making it a fully government-controlled Maharatna PSU
HPCL’s business is highly sensitive to global crude prices, product cracks, and inventory accounting effects—leading to short-term earnings swings but long-term strategic stability.
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd: Key Financial Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | ₹426.80 |
| Market Capitalization | ₹90,826.10 Cr |
| No. of Shares Outstanding | 212.78 Cr |
| 52-Week High / Low | ₹508 / ₹288 |
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | 5.81 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.62 |
| EPS (TTM) | ₹73.45 |
| Book Value (TTM) | ₹263.28 |
| ROE | 16.93% |
| ROCE | 12.28% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.46% |
| Face Value | ₹10 |
| Cash | ₹166.78 Cr |
| Total Debt | ₹63,323.37 Cr |
| Debt-to-Equity | 1.38 |
| Sales Growth (YoY) | 0.05% |
| Profit Growth (YoY) | -49.88% |
| Promoter Holding | 54.90% |
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Share Price Target Forecast (2026–2030)
| Year | Target Price Range (₹) |
|---|---|
| 2026 | ₹450 – ₹500 |
| 2027 | ₹480 – ₹540 |
| 2028 | ₹510 – ₹590 |
| 2029 | ₹540 – ₹640 |
| 2030 | ₹570 – ₹690 |
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Share Price Target 2026
| Year | Share Price Target 1 | Share Price Target 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ₹450 | ₹500 |
HPCL reported a sharp 49.88% YoY profit decline in FY2025 due to inventory losses from falling crude prices in H2 FY25. However, underlying refining margins and marketing volumes remained stable. Trading at a P/E of just 5.8x—well below sector averages—and offering a 2.46% dividend yield, the stock appears undervalued relative to its asset base and cash flow. A 2026 target of ₹450–₹500 assumes normalization of inventory effects and stable refining cracks.
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Share Price Target 2027
| Year | Share Price Target 1 | Share Price Target 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ₹480 | ₹540 |
HPCL’s focus on petrochemical integration (e.g., polypropylene, benzene) and city gas expansion offers margin resilience. If crude volatility stabilizes and refining utilization stays above 100%, earnings could rebound. Assuming EPS recovers to ₹80–₹85 by FY27 and P/E expands modestly to 6.5–7x, the 2027 range is ₹480–₹540.
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Share Price Target 2028
| Year | Share Price Target 1 | Share Price Target 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2028 | ₹510 | ₹590 |
By 2028, benefits from new petrochemical units and higher-margin specialty products should contribute meaningfully. The company’s strong retail network and brand trust provide pricing power. A P/E of 6.8–7.5x on projected EPS (~₹82–₹88) supports the ₹510–₹590 band.
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Share Price Target 2029
| Year | Share Price Target 1 | Share Price Target 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2029 | ₹540 | ₹640 |
Long-term demand for fuels in India remains robust despite EV adoption, especially in freight, aviation, and rural segments. HPCL’s integrated model provides natural hedging. If ROE sustains near 17% and debt is managed prudently, investor confidence could strengthen. Using a P/E of 7–8x on FY29 EPS (~₹84–₹90), the 2029 target is ₹540–₹640.
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Share Price Target 2030
| Year | Share Price Target 1 | Share Price Target 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2030 | ₹570 | ₹690 |
Over a five-year horizon, HPCL’s appeal lies in its irreplaceable infrastructure, consistent dividends, and strategic national role—not high growth. If it sustains 30–35% dividend payout and avoids major inventory shocks, it can deliver steady total returns. A terminal P/E of 7.5–8.5x on FY30 EPS (~₹85–₹92) justifies the ₹570–₹690 range.
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd: Shareholding Pattern
| Category | Holding (%) |
|---|---|
| Promoters (GOI) | 54.90% |
| Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) | 20.64% |
| Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) | 16.35% |
| Public & Retail | 8.11% |
| Others | 0% |
High institutional ownership (37%) reflects confidence in governance and cash flow stability.
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd: Strengths vs Risks
Strengths:
- Market leader in lubricants and #2 in fuel retail
- Healthy dividend payout (33.5% average over 5 years; ₹10.5/share declared for FY2025)
- Strong asset base: 2 refineries, 22,000+ outlets, pipeline network
- Trading below book value (P/B: 1.62) with low P/E (5.8x)
Risks:
- Earnings are highly volatile due to inventory accounting effects
- Negative sales growth (0.05%) and steep profit decline (-49.88%) in FY25
- High absolute debt (₹63,323 Cr), though manageable (D/E: 1.38)
- Exposure to geopolitical crude price swings and INR depreciation
Investment Suitability
| Factor | Assessment |
|---|---|
| Risk Profile | Moderate |
| Ideal Time Horizon | 3–5+ years |
| Volatility | Medium (tied to global oil markets) |
| Dividend/Income Potential | Yes (2.46% yield + consistent payouts) |
| Best For | Conservative investors seeking PSU energy exposure with income |
- HPCL: Better refining complexity, stronger lube business, lower P/E (5.8x vs BPCL’s ~9.4x)
- BPCL: Larger scale, higher marketing reach, undergoing privatization (uncertainty vs opportunity)
Final Verdict
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd remains a cornerstone of India’s downstream energy sector. While short-term earnings are volatile due to external factors, its scale, distribution strength, and shareholder-friendly policy make it a reliable long-term holding. Our HPCL share price target 2026–2030 (₹450 to ₹690) reflects cautious optimism—rooted in fundamentals, not speculation.
Disclaimer: Price targets are estimates based on publicly available data and sector analysis. They are not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before making decisions.
Sources
- Screener.in – HPCL Consolidated Page (FY2025 + TTM)
- Finology Ticker – HPCL Financial Ratios & Valuation
- HPCL Investor Presentation (Q3 FY26, Jan 2026)
- BSE India – Annual Report FY2025
- Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas – Maharatna PSU Dashboard
