Dr. Agarwal’s Eye Hospital Ltd, officially listed as Dr. Agarwal’s Health Care Ltd, is India’s largest organized eye care service provider with a significant presence across domestic and international markets. The company offers a full spectrum of eye care services—including cataract and refractive surgeries, diagnostics, optical retail, and pharmaceuticals—and operates over 100 eye hospitals and 250+ optical stores. While it benefits from strong sector tailwinds in healthcare and rising demand for quality eye care, its financial metrics raise concerns about profitability and valuation. This article provides a balanced, fact-based analysis and realistic share price targets for each year from 2026 to 2030.
Listed: Yes – on BSE (544089) and NSE (AGARWALEYE) since December 2023
Business: Integrated eye care services—surgery, diagnostics, optical retail, contact lenses, and pharma
Market Position: Claims ~25% market share in India’s organized eye care segment; largest by revenue
Geography: Operations in India, Africa (Nigeria, Ghana, etc.), and Southeast Asia
Clarifications:
Is Dr. Agarwal listed? Yes – IPO opened in Dec 2023; listed on NSE/BSE.
What is its market share? Approximately 25% in India’s organized private eye care sector.
Should we invest in the IPO? The IPO is already listed; current valuations are extremely stretched (P/E ~290x), making it unsuitable for conservative investors.
Profitability concern: Despite 25% sales growth, profit declined by 7.97% YoY due to high depreciation and interest costs.
Dr. Agarwal’s Health Care: Key Financial Snapshot
Metric
Value
Market Capitalization
₹14,197.73 Cr
Current Share Price
₹448
52-Week High / Low
₹568 / ₹327
P/E (TTM)
290.21
P/B (TTM)
7.26
Book Value (TTM)
₹61.72
EPS (TTM)
₹1.54
ROE
1.39%
ROCE
7.29%
Dividend Yield
0%
Debt
₹145.22 Cr
Cash Reserves
₹193.96 Cr
Sales Growth (YoY)
25.01%
Profit Growth (YoY)
–7.97%
Shareholding Pattern
Category
Holding (%)
Promoters
32.39%
Foreign Institutions (FII)
37.97%
Domestic Institutions (DII)
27.87%
Public (Retail)
1.77%
Others
0%
Note: Very low public float may contribute to price volatility.
Dr. Agarwal’s Share Price Target Forecast (2026–2030)
Given the extremely high P/E ratio, declining profits, and low return ratios, upside is limited unless earnings rebound sharply. Targets assume:
EPS recovery by FY27 through margin improvement
P/E compression from 290x to 100–120x over 3–4 years (still premium)
No dividend payout (0% yield)
Year
Target Price Range (₹)
2026
₹460 – ₹520
2027
₹480 – ₹560
2028
₹500 – ₹610
2029
₹520 – ₹660
2030
₹540 – ₹710
⚠️ Important: These targets reflect modest appreciation, not re-rating. Even at ₹710 in 2030, P/E would remain above 100x if EPS grows at 20% CAGR.
Year-wise Breakdown
Dr. Agarwal’s Share Price Target 2026
Year
Target 1
Target 2
2026
₹460
₹520
Rationale: Despite strong sales growth, profit contraction, and ROE below 2% limit, investor enthusiasm. High institutional holding provides support, but valuation remains a major overhang.
Dr. Agarwal’s Share Price Target 2027
Year
Target 1
Target 2
2027
₹480
₹560
Rationale: Potential stabilization in margins as new hospitals reach scale. However, high capex will continue to pressure cash flows and returns.
Dr. Agarwal’s Share Price Target 2028
Year
Target 1
Target 2
2028
₹500
₹610
Rationale: If operational efficiency improves and depreciation stabilizes, ROCE could rise above 10%, supporting modest re-rating.
Dr. Agarwal’s Share Price Target 2029
Year
Target 1
Target 2
2029
₹520
₹660
Rationale: Long-term play on India’s underpenetrated eye care market and medical tourism. Success depends on asset utilization, not just expansion.
Dr. Agarwal’s Share Price Target 2030
Year
Target 1
Target 2
2030
₹540
₹710
Rationale: The upper end assumes sustained 25%+ sales growth, profit turnaround, and improved ROE (>5%). Still, valuation will likely remain rich vs peers.
Strengths vs Risks
✅ Strengths
Market leader in organized eye care (~25% share)
High sales growth (25% YoY)
Strong institutional backing (FII + DII = 65.8%)
Asset-light optical retail complements the hospital business
⚠️ Risks
Extremely high P/E (290x) – among the highest in Indian equities
Negative profit growth despite revenue surge
Very low ROE (1.39%) and ROCE (7.29%)
No dividends – all earnings reinvested (or lost to depreciation)
High capex cycle delays profitability
Investment Suitability
Factor
Assessment
Risk Profile
Very High (newly listed, unprofitable at ROE level)
Time Horizon
Long-term (5+ years)
Volatility
High
Dividend/Income
None (0% yield)
Ideal Investor
Aggressive growth investor who believes in long-term healthcare disruption; not for conservative portfolios
FAQs
For 2026, a realistic range is ₹460–₹520. By 2030, it could reach ₹540–₹710—but only if profits recover significantly.
Approximately 25% in India’s organized private eye care segment—the largest player by revenue.
The IPO is already listed (Dec 2023). At current levels, the stock is overvalued based on fundamentals. Only suitable for high-risk investors.
Yes – on NSE (AGARWALEYE) and BSE (544089).
Final Verdict
Dr. Agarwal’s Health Care operates in a high-growth, underpenetrated sector with strong brand recognition. However, its financial performance does not justify its sky-high valuation. With ROE below 2% and declining profits, the stock carries significant risk. Our 2026–2030 price targets (₹460–₹710) assume gradual operational improvement—but even then, returns may lag broader markets. Investors should wait for clear earnings recovery and P/E normalization before considering entry.
📌 Disclaimer: Price targets are estimates based on current data and sector trends. They are not investment advice. Please consult a SEBI-registered advisor.
