Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) is a Maharatna Central Public Sector Enterprise under the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, Government of India. Incorporated in 1952, BPCL operates three refineries—Mumbai (12 MMTPA), Kochi (15.5 MMTPA), and Bina (7.8 MMTPA)—with a total refining capacity of 35.3 MMTPA, accounting for ~14% of India’s total refining capacity. The company also runs over 22,000 retail fuel stations and is a key player in LPG, aviation fuel, and petrochemicals. Despite recent profit volatility due to inventory losses and global crude swings, BPCL remains a strategic national asset with strong cash flows and consistent dividends. This article provides a data-backed outlook on the BPCL share price target 2026–2030.
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd: Company Overview
- Founded: 1952
- Headquarters: Mumbai, Maharashtra
- Key Segments: Refining, Fuel Marketing, Petrochemicals, LPG, Aviation Fuel
- Strategic Assets: 3 refineries, 22,000+ retail outlets, 14% national refining share
- Ownership: 52.98% held by the Government of India → Yes, it is a government company
BPCL benefits from long-term demand for petroleum products, especially in transport and industry. It is also investing in green energy (biofuels, EV charging, hydrogen) as part of India’s net-zero transition.
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd: Key Financial Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | ₹367.00 |
| Market Capitalization | ₹1,59,179.77 Cr |
| No. of Shares Outstanding | 433.85 Cr |
| 52-Week High / Low | ₹388 / ₹234 |
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | 6.82 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.60 |
| EPS (TTM) | ₹53.76 |
| Book Value (TTM) | ₹228.84 |
| ROE | 17.06% |
| ROCE | 19.61% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.76% |
| Face Value | ₹10 |
| Cash | ₹9,382.88 Cr |
| Total Debt | ₹24,476.56 Cr |
| Debt-to-Equity | 0.30 |
| Sales Growth (YoY) | -1.74% |
| Profit Growth (YoY) | -50.23% |
| Promoter Holding | 52.98% |
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd Share Price Target Forecast (2026–2030)
| Year | Target Price Range (₹) |
|---|---|
| 2026 | ₹390 – ₹430 |
| 2027 | ₹415 – ₹465 |
| 2028 | ₹440 – ₹500 |
| 2029 | ₹465 – ₹540 |
| 2030 | ₹490 – ₹580 |
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd Share Price Target 2026
| Year | Share Price Target 1 | Share Price Target 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ₹390 | ₹430 |
BPCL reported a sharp 50.23% YoY decline in profit in FY2025 due to inventory losses from falling crude prices in H2 FY25. However, its core operations remain robust, with healthy refining margins and strong marketing volumes. Trading at a P/E of just 6.8x and P/B of 1.6x, the stock appears undervalued relative to its 17% ROE and 19.6% ROCE. A 2026 target of ₹390–₹430 assumes normalization of earnings and stable dividend payouts.
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd Share Price Target 2027
| Year | Share Price Target 1 | Share Price Target 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ₹415 | ₹465 |
India’s fuel demand continues to grow, supported by infrastructure expansion and rising vehicle ownership. If BPCL sustains 10–12% earnings CAGR and maintains its 35%+ dividend payout, investor interest could rise. Assuming EPS reaches ₹58–₹62 by FY27 and P/E expands to 7–7.5x, the 2027 range of ₹415–₹465 is realistic.
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd Share Price Target 2028
| Year | Share Price Target 1 | Share Price Target 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2028 | ₹440 | ₹500 |
By 2028, benefits from refinery upgrades, petrochemical integration, and green energy initiatives should reflect in profitability. While ROCE (19.6%) is solid, the capital-intensive nature of refining limits scalability. A P/E of 7–7.5x on projected EPS (~₹60–₹65) supports the ₹440–₹500 band.
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd Share Price Target 2029
| Year | Share Price Target 1 | Share Price Target 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2029 | ₹465 | ₹540 |
Long-term tailwinds include India’s rising energy import dependence and strategic focus on energy security. Risks include crude price volatility and EV adoption. Using a P/E of 7.5–8x on FY29 EPS (~₹62–₹68), the 2029 target is ₹465–₹540.
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd Share Price Target 2030
| Year | Share Price Target 1 | Share Price Target 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2030 | ₹490 | ₹580 |
Over a five-year horizon, BPCL’s value lies in its irreplaceable national role—not explosive growth. A terminal P/E of 8–8.5x on FY30 EPS (~₹61–₹68) justifies the ₹490–₹580 range.
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd: Shareholding Pattern
| Category | Holding (%) |
|---|---|
| Promoters (GOI) | 52.98% |
| Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) | 19.99% |
| Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) | 18.46% |
| Public & Retail | 8.57% |
| Others | 0.00% |
High promoter holding ensures policy continuity, while strong institutional interest reflects confidence in governance.
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd: Strengths vs Risks
Strengths:
- Consistent profitability: 17% ROE, 19.6% ROCE
- Strong dividend yield (2.76%) with ~35% payout ratio
- Sovereign backing and strategic role in national energy security
- Trading below historical P/E and P/B averages
Risks:
- Modest sales growth (-1.74%) due to refined product pricing controls
- Exposure to global crude and inventory valuation effects
- P/B of 1.6x leaves little room for multiple expansion
- Long-term threat from EVs and the renewable energy transition
Investment Suitability
| Factor | Assessment |
|---|---|
| Risk Profile | Moderate |
| Ideal Time Horizon | 3–5+ years |
| Volatility | Lower than market average (PSU energy stock) |
| Dividend/Income Potential | Yes (2.76% yield + consistent payouts) |
| Best For | Conservative investors seeking PSU exposure with income and safety |
- 50% YoY profit decline in FY25 (inventory losses)
- Concerns over refining margin volatility
- Broader PSU oil & gas sector rotation
Final Verdict
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd combines strategic national importance, exceptional return ratios, and shareholder-friendly dividends. While not a high-growth story, it offers defensive value with steady compounding potential. Our BPCL share price target 2026–2030 (₹390 to ₹580) reflects cautious optimism—rooted in infrastructure moat, policy tailwinds, and income, not speculation.
Disclaimer: Price targets are estimates based on publicly available data and sector analysis. They are not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before making decisions.
Sources
- Screener.in – BPCL Consolidated Page (FY2025 + TTM)
- Finology Ticker – BPCL Financial Ratios & Valuation
- BPCL Investor Presentation (Q3 FY26, Jan 2026)
- BSE India – Annual Report FY2025
- Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas – National Energy Policy Dashboard
