Adani Power Ltd is India’s largest private thermal power producer and a key player in the Adani Group’s integrated energy ecosystem. The company operates a vast portfolio of coal-based power plants and has recently expanded into renewable energy, signaling a strategic shift toward a more sustainable future. Despite its strong market position and robust profitability metrics, Adani Power reported a sharp 41% decline in net profit for FY2025, which has weighed on investor sentiment. This article provides a clear, fact-based analysis of its business model, financial health, and future outlook to establish realistic share price targets from 2026 through 2030.
Adani Power Ltd: Company Overview
- Business Model: Primarily engaged in thermal power generation, selling electricity through long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), short-term contracts, and merchant sales. It also has growing interests in renewable energy.
- Geography: Operates across multiple states, including Gujarat, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan.
- Key Developments: The company executed a 1:5 stock split in September 2025, improving retail accessibility. It continues to benefit from captive coal linkages and in-house logistics, ensuring fuel security and cost advantages.
Adani Power Ltd: Key Financial Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | ₹142 |
| Market Capitalization | ₹2,73,553 Crore |
| 52-Week High/Low | ₹183 / ₹86.2 |
| P/E (TTM) | 25.44 |
| P/B (TTM) | 5.71 |
| ROE (FY2025) | 26.68% |
| ROCE (FY2025) | 23.70% |
| Debt/Equity (Mar 2025) | 1.35 |
| FY2025 Revenue | ₹56,203 Crore |
| FY2025 Net Profit | ₹12,750 Crore |
Adani Power Ltd Share Price Target Forecast (2026–2030)
| Year | Target Price Range (₹) |
|---|---|
| 2026 | ₹155 – ₹185 |
| 2027 | ₹180 – ₹220 |
| 2028 | ₹210 – ₹260 |
| 2029 | ₹240 – ₹300 |
| 2030 | ₹270 – ₹340 |
Adani Power Ltd Share Price Target 2026
| Year | Share Price Target 1 | Share Price Target 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ₹155 | ₹185 |
- The company’s strong Return on Equity (ROE) of 26.68% and ROCE of 23.70% highlight its capital efficiency despite the recent profit dip.
- Its dominant position in the private thermal power market and secure fuel supply chain provide a stable foundation.
- However, the 41% YoY profit decline in FY2025 and high P/B ratio of 5.71 suggest near-term upside may be limited until earnings stabilize.
Adani Power Ltd Share Price Target 2027
| Year | Share Price Target 1 | Share Price Target 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ₹180 | ₹220 |
- Growth will depend on a recovery in profitability and potential contributions from its nascent renewable energy ventures.
- As part of the larger Adani Group, it benefits from strong brand equity, management expertise, and access to capital.
- Investor sentiment should improve if the company can demonstrate consistent earnings and a credible green transition plan.
Adani Power Ltd Share Price Target 2028
| Year | Share Price Target 1 | Share Price Target 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2028 | ₹210 | ₹260 |
- By this stage, any meaningful diversification into renewables could start to re-rate the stock, reducing its reliance on thermal power.
- Its strategic importance in India’s power mix, especially with captive coal mines, ensures continued relevance in the medium term.
- Market valuation will hinge on its ability to manage its high debt levels (₹34,915 crore) while funding growth.
Adani Power Ltd Share Price Target 2029
| Year | Share Price Target 1 | Share Price Target 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2029 | ₹240 | ₹300 |
- Long-term investors will be watching for the company’s progress toward its stated sustainability goals and its role in the group’s net-zero vision.
- If it can maintain its high return ratios while deleveraging, it could command a premium among private power utilities.
- Sustained policy support for domestic coal-based power as a baseload source remains a key tailwind.
Adani Power Ltd Share Price Target 2030
| Year | Share Price Target 1 | Share Price Target 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2030 | ₹270 | ₹340 |
- Sentiment will depend on Adani Power successfully balancing its legacy thermal business with a scalable clean energy platform.
- A continued track record of high ROE would justify its current premium valuation.
- Its position as a cash-generative asset within the Adani ecosystem makes it a strategic long-term holding.
Adani Power Ltd: Shareholding Pattern
| Category | Holding (%) |
|---|---|
| Promoters | 74.96% |
| Foreign Institutions (FII/FPI) | 11.64% |
| Domestic Institutions (DII) | 3.42% |
| Public (Retail & Others) | 9.98% |
The Adani Group holds a commanding 74.96% stake, providing strong strategic control. There is no pledging of promoter shares, ensuring governance stability.
Adani Power Ltd: Strengths vs Risks
- Strengths:
- Market Leadership: India’s largest private thermal power generator with a vast, efficient fleet.
- Strong Profitability Metrics: Consistently high ROE (26.68%) and ROCE (23.70%) reflect superior operational efficiency.
- Integrated Fuel Security: Captive coal mines and logistics provide a high cost and supply advantage.
- Clean Promoter Holding: No pledged shares is a major red flag for investors.
- Risks:
- Recent Earnings Volatility: A sharp 41% profit decline in FY2025 raises questions about near-term stability.
- High Leverage: A debt-to-equity ratio of 1.35 and total debt of nearly ₹35,000 crore increases financial risk.
- Environmental & Regulatory Pressure: Long-term headwinds from global decarbonization trends could impact the thermal business.
Investment Suitability
| Factor | Assessment |
|---|---|
| Risk Profile | Moderate to High (large-cap, but with earnings volatility and high debt) |
| Time Horizon | Long-term (5+ years) – quality growth story |
| Volatility | Moderate to High – subject to group-wide sentiment and sector news |
| Dividend/Income | None – the company does not pay dividends (0% yield). |
| Ideal Investor | Growth-oriented investors who believe in the Adani Group’s execution capabilities and are comfortable with the risks of a thermal-heavy utility in a transitioning energy landscape. |
Adani Power is best suited for those seeking exposure to India’s private power sector with a long-term view on its strategic evolution.
FAQs
Is ADANI Power a good stock to buy?
Adani Power is a high-quality operator with strong returns, but it carries risks from its recent earnings drop, high debt, and dependence on thermal power. It may be suitable for aggressive long-term investors who have conviction in the Adani Group’s strategy.
What is the share price of Adani Power in 2030?
Based on our analysis, we estimate a 2030 target range of ₹270 – ₹340.
Why is Adani Power falling?
The stock has faced pressure due to a 41% year-on-year decline in net profit for FY2025, concerns over high debt levels, and broader market scrutiny of the Adani Group’s valuations.
What is the target of ADANI power?
Our 2026–2030 price targets range from ₹155 in 2026 to ₹340 by 2030, assuming a stabilization of earnings and successful execution of its strategic initiatives.
Which top 5 shares to buy today?
There is no universal “top 5” list. The best stocks depend on your risk profile and goals. Large-caps like NTPC or Power Grid offer stability, while Adani Power offers higher growth potential with higher risk.
Which one is better, Tata Power or Adani Power?
Tata Power is a more balanced, integrated utility with a clear and advanced green transition plan, offering lower risk. Adani Power is a pure-play thermal leader with higher return ratios but greater exposure to coal-related risks. The choice depends on your risk appetite.
Final Verdict
Adani Power Ltd stands as a powerhouse in India’s private energy sector, backed by exceptional return metrics and a strategic fuel advantage. However, its recent earnings volatility and environmental challenges present significant hurdles. For investors with a high conviction in the Adani Group’s long-term vision and a tolerance for cyclical earnings, Adani Power offers a compelling, albeit risky, opportunity. Our 2026–2030 price targets (₹155–₹340) assume a recovery in profitability and a credible, albeit gradual, pivot toward a more sustainable energy mix.
Sources
- Screener.in – Adani Power Ltd. Consolidated Financials (FY2025)
- Groww.in – Adani Power Fundamental Data
- Finology Ticker – ADANIPOWER Company Profile & Ratios
- Adani Power Annual Report FY2025
