Adani Green Energy Ltd (ADANIGREEN), founded in 2015, is a major player in India’s renewables sector. It owns and operates utility-scale solar, wind, and hybrid power plants across India. As of mid-2025, AGEL’s portfolio exceeded 15.5 GW (11.0 GW solar, 1.9 GW wind, 2.6 GW hybrid) – making it India’s largest pure-play renewable power company. The firm aims to aggressively expand to 50,000 MW (50 GW) by 2030, aligning with India’s national target of 500 GW renewable capacity by 2030. This long-term growth plan and leadership position have drawn heavy attention from investors.
Company Overview
Adani Green Energy Ltd (ADANIGREEN) is part of the Adani Group conglomerate. Incorporated in 2015, it serves as a holding company for renewable energy assets. AGEL develops, builds, and operates solar parks, wind farms, hybrid projects, and pumped-hydro storage in India. It has rapidly scaled up – from ~2 GW total capacity in FY2018 to ~16.7 GW by Sept 2025. Its projects span 12 Indian states (across solar-rich Rajasthan/Gujarat and wind regions). In the company’s strategy, about 75–80% of capacity will remain tied to long-term government PPAs, with the rest at merchant tariffs, improving returns over time. Major initiatives include the 30 GW Khavda (Gujarat) solar-wind park – the world’s largest single-site RE project – of which over 4 GW is already operational. AGEL’s goal is roughly 45–50 GW by 2030, leveraging India’s push for green energy.
Key Financial Snapshot
| Metric | Latest Data (FY2025) |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | ₹1,55,839 Crore |
| Share Price | ₹946 (Jan 9, 2026) |
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | ~71× |
| ROE (TTM) | ~14.6% |
| Debt/Equity | ~3.7× (FY2025) |
Adani Green Energy Share Price Target Forecast (2026–2030)
| Year | Projected Price Range (Rs) |
|---|---|
| 2026 | 800 – 1,500 |
| 2027 | 1,200 – 2,000 |
| 2028 | 1,800 – 2,800 |
| 2029 | 2,500 – 3,800 |
| 2030 | 3,000 – 5,000 |
Adani Green Energy Share Price Target 2026
| Year | Share Price Target 1 | Share Price Target 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ₹800 | ₹1,500 |
- Strong capacity additions and ~20–30% earnings growth are supported by signed PPAs and rising renewable output.
- FY2025 performance shows robust revenue and EBITDA growth, improving earnings visibility.
- Stock may remain volatile due to market sentiment despite a positive analyst consensus near ₹1,360.
Adani Green Energy Share Price Target 2027
| Year | Share Price Target 1 | Share Price Target 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ₹1,200 | ₹2,000 |
- Khavda projects and SECI auction wins could materially lift operating capacity and revenues.
- PAT growth of 20–30% YoY is possible if execution stays on track.
- Interest rates and equipment cost pressures remain key risks influencing valuation.
Adani Green Energy Share Price Target 2028
| Year | Share Price Target 1 | Share Price Target 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2028 | ₹1,800 | ₹2,800 |
- Operating capacity could reach 25–30 GW, supporting stronger and more stable cash flows.
- Reduced execution risk may lead to a modest valuation re-rating.
- Policy incentives and renewable auctions are upside-down drivers, while tariff pressure is a risk.
Adani Green Energy Share Price Target 2029
| Year | Share Price Target 1 | Share Price Target 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2029 | ₹2,500 | ₹3,800 |
- Cumulative capacity additions may more than double FY2025 levels, strengthening earnings.
- Free cash flow improvement could support higher valuations if debt and costs are controlled.
- Policy changes or execution delays could push the stock toward the lower end of the range.
Adani Green Energy Share Price Target 2030
| Year | Share Price Target 1 | Share Price Target 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2030 | ₹3,000 | ₹5,000 |
- Realisation of the 50 GW target would position ADANIGREEN as a dominant renewable power producer.
- Long-term revenue growth could remain strong if government targets and global clean-energy demand persist.
- Valuation remains sensitive to broader market multiples, making this a scenario-based outlook.
Shareholding Pattern
| Shareholder Category | Holding (%) |
|---|---|
| Promoters (Adani group) | 62.43 |
| Foreign Institutions (FII/FPI) | 11.29 |
| Mutual Funds (Domestic DII) | 1.64 |
| Other Domestic Institutions | 1.34 |
| Public & Retail | 23.30 |
Promoters hold roughly 62.4% of equity. Foreign investors own about 11.3%, with Indian mutual funds only ~1.6% (both up modestly in the latest quarter). Retail and other holders own the remaining ~23.3%. In the Sep 2025 quarter, promoters slightly increased their stake while FIIs trimmed theirs. This pattern suggests the Adani group retains control, but significant public float remains (near 37%).
Strengths vs Risks
- Market Leadership & Growth Pipeline: Adani Green is the largest pure-play renewable company in India, with >15.5 GW online today and a target of 50 GW by FY2030. Its scale enables operational efficiencies, and it achieved a record 3.3 GW capacity addition in FY25. High project wins (e.g. large solar/wind deals) and future deals underpin revenue growth.
- Robust Financial Performance: ADANIGREEN has delivered strong growth – FY2025 revenue was ₹9,495 Cr (+23% YoY) and EBITDA ₹8,818 Cr (+22%), with an industry-leading EBITDA margin (~92%). Profit has surged (net income up ~59% in FY25). This healthy profit growth gives confidence that earnings can support a higher stock valuation over time.
- Long-term PPAs: About 92% of AGEL’s capacity is tied to fixed, long-term power purchase agreements (25+ year contracts) with utilities. This provides stable cash flows and shields revenues from short-term market swings. Such backlogs reduce execution risk and lend visibility to future profits.
- Parent & Partners: Backed by the Adani Group and partners (e.g., TotalEnergies investment) provides deep pockets and synergies (e.g., logistics, financing). This aids quick capital raising for projects and can lower costs. Being part of a major conglomerate also helps win large contracts and land rights.
- Favorable Sector Tailwinds: Indian government goals (500 GW by 2030) and accelerating global focus on green energy boost AGEL’s long-term demand. As a pure-renewables play, it stands to benefit from any new incentives or auctions. ESG-conscious investors may also favor its stock as a clean-energy leader.
Risks to Monitor:
- High Debt Load: ADANIGREEN has aggressively borrowed to fund projects. By FY2025, long-term debt was ~₹68,800 Cr (65% higher than a year earlier) and net debt/equity ~8×. Such leverage raises financial risk – interest costs are high, and any earnings shortfall or rate hikes could strain cash flow. Future equity raises may be needed, diluting returns.
- Regulatory & Policy Exposure: The renewables sector is very policy-driven. Any cuts to subsidies, changes in auction rules, or PPA/tariff modifications can materially affect profitability. For example, delays in land/environment approvals (or changes in cross-border transmission charges) could raise costs. Although AGEL has long PPAs, broad rule changes (like “must-run” curtailment or new taxes) remain a risk.
- Corporate Governance / Controversies: The wider Adani Group faced intense scrutiny from late 2022. While independent reviews in 2025 cleared Adani Green of direct wrongdoing, lingering reputational concerns persist. Any new allegations or regulatory actions involving group entities could temporarily hurt investor sentiment and stock price.
- No Dividends / High Valuation: AGEL retains all profits for expansion and pays no dividend, so equity returns rely entirely on growth. The stock also trades at steep multiples (P/E well above 50× trailing earnings). This means any setback (missed guidance, margin compression) could cause sharp falls. Long-term investors must accept volatility in pursuit of growth.
Investment Suitability
| Investor Type | Suitability / Comment |
|---|---|
| Aggressive Growth | High – Fits growth portfolios focused on renewables, if one can tolerate volatility. The large expansion potential could reward long-term holders. (High debt and policy risk means patience is needed.) |
| Conservative / Income | Low – ADANIGREEN pays no dividend and has high leverage. It is not suitable for investors seeking stability or income. |
| Value-Oriented | Low – Valuations remain rich; downside risk is real if growth disappoints. Only value play if costs come down or earnings outpace hype. |
| ESG / Green Investors | Moderate/High – As India’s largest pure-renewables company, ADANIGREEN meets sustainable investing goals. However, non-financial controversies and debt risk mean it’s not a pure play without caveats. |
| Speculative / Traders | Moderate – The stock is volatile, so short-term traders may find opportunities in price swings. Still, gains have been unpredictable; this is not a momentum or penny stock. |
FAQs
What is Adani Green Energy’s business model?
Adani Green owns and operates utility-scale renewable power plants (solar, wind, hybrid) in India. It sells electricity under long-term power purchase agreements (typically 25 years) to state and central utilities. Its revenue comes from power supply under these contracts, supplemented by merchant sales. The company invests in new projects (often as an SPV) to expand capacity, funded by equity and debt. In essence, it is a pure-play renewables generator, unlike diversified energy companies.
How profitable is Adani Green?
Very profitable by modern RE standards. For FY2025, AGEL reported ₹9,495 Cr revenue and ₹8,818 Cr EBITDA, implying ~92% EBITDA margins. Net profit jumped ~59% year-on-year in FY2025, reflecting fast capacity additions and high-efficiency operations. Return on equity is in the low-to-mid teens (~12–15%). Profitability is driven by fixed-tariff PPAs (stabilizing cash flows) and scale, though interest costs are substantial due to high debt.
What are the main risks for Adani Green’s stock?
The biggest risks are financial leverage and policy dependence. AGEL’s growth was debt-funded (debt/equity ~3–4× or higher), so higher rates or weak cash flows could squeeze margins. The renewables sector is sensitive to government policies – changes to tariffs, auction norms or subsidies can impact project economics. Additionally, broader Adani Group governance issues have introduced uncertainty (though AGEL itself was cleared of wrongdoing). Investors should also note the stock’s high valuation and lack of dividends; if growth slows, the price could correct sharply.
Does Adani Green Energy pay dividends?
No. The company has not paid any cash dividend to shareholders (dividend yield = 0.00%). All earnings are reinvested to fund new renewable projects. Investors seeking regular income from dividends would not find it here.
What do analysts say about Adani Green’s near-term price?
Analysts’ 12-month consensus target is around ₹1,360, implying roughly 40–50% upside from current levels. The range of estimates is wide (as low as ~₹864 to as high as ~₹2,142), reflecting uncertainty. In our forecasts above, we also assume rising earnings. However, analysts warn this is not a guarantee – markets can be volatile. Always consider such targets with caution.
What is Adani Green’s goal for 2030?
Adani Green aims to reach around 45–50 GW of operational capacity by 2030. This includes vastly expanding its solar/wind portfolio (notably the 30 GW Khavda park) and adding pumped hydro projects. Meeting this goal would make AGEL one of the world’s largest renewable generators. The company’s share price by 2030 will depend on achieving these targets and how the market values large green utilities.
Final Verdict
Adani Green Energy is a high-growth, high-risk stock. Its leadership in India’s renewable buildout and strong recent earnings growth offer an attractive growth story. However, heavy debt, sector policy risk, and no dividends make it volatile. Retail investors should weigh these factors carefully: this stock suits those betting on India’s clean energy boom (and willing to endure ups and downs), but is not ideal for conservative or income-focused investors. This analysis is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.
