Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL) is a premier American less-than-truckload (LTL) shipping company providing regional, inter-regional, and national freight transportation services across North America. Operating in the transportation and logistics sector, the company has demonstrated exceptional operational excellence with industry-leading service metrics and strong profitability despite cyclical freight market challenges. This analysis provides a comprehensive, fact-based examination of Old Dominion Freight Line’s financial position, ownership structure, and realistic share price projections through 2030 based on current market data and publicly available financial metrics.
Founded: 1934 by Earl and Lillian Congdon in Richmond, Virginia
Headquarters: Thomasville, North Carolina, United States
Core Business Segments: Less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation, regional shipping, inter-regional shipping, and national shipping services
Key Products/Services: LTL freight shipping, expedited delivery services, logistics solutions, and supply chain management for businesses across various industries
Major Clients/Markets: Manufacturing companies, retailers, distributors, and businesses across North America requiring reliable freight transportation services
Competitive Edge: Industry-leading on-time delivery rates, extensive service center network, superior customer service, strong operational efficiency, and family-led management with long-term strategic vision
Ownership Structure: Publicly held company with significant insider ownership, including the Congdon family, maintaining substantial influence, supported by a strong institutional investor base
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc: Key Financial Snapshot
Metric
Value (as of February 2026)
Market Cap
$40.40 Billion
Current Share Price
$193.21
P/E Ratio (TTM)
40.00
P/B Ratio
9.10
Book Value per Share (TTM)
$21.23
EPS (TTM)
$4.84
ROE
25.00%
ROIC
18.75%
Dividend Yield
0.60%
Sales Growth (TTM)
-3.0%
Profit Growth (TTM)
-15.2%
Total Cash
$1.25 Billion
Total Debt
$850 Million
Par Value
$0.10 per share
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc Share Price Target Forecast (2026–2030)
Year
Low Target
Base Target
High Target
2026
$175
$195
$220
2027
$190
$220
$255
2028
$210
$250
$295
2029
$230
$280
$335
2030
$250
$310
$375
Individual Year Forecasts
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc Share Price Target 2026
Share Price Target 1
Share Price Target 2
$175
$220
Continued execution on operational excellence despite cyclical freight market headwinds, with an operating ratio of 72.7% in Q3 2024 demonstrating industry-leading efficiency
Potential for freight market recovery in the second half of 2026 as economic conditions stabilize and shipping demand improves
Analyst consensus price target of $182.65 from 20 analysts with a “Buy” rating, providing near-term support
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc Share Price Target 2027
Share Price Target 1
Share Price Target 2
$190
$255
Expected normalization of freight volumes and pricing as the economic cycle turns favorable
Continued expansion of service center network and capacity optimization supporting margin improvement
Potential for improved free cash flow generation as the business scales with minimal capital expenditure requirements relative to revenue
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc Share Price Target 2028
Share Price Target 1
Share Price Target 2
$210
$295
Full realization of pricing power and volume recovery as the freight market enters the expansion phase
Potential strategic investments in technology and automation, enhancing operational efficiency
Analyst expectations for revenue of $6.7 billion and earnings of $1.4 billion in 2028, supporting higher valuation multiples
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc Share Price Target 2029
Share Price Target 1
Share Price Target 2
$230
$335
Established market leadership position in LTL freight with significant competitive moat and pricing power
Continued strong cash generation with predictable dividend growth, attracting income-focused investors
Potential for improved return on invested capital as the company achieves greater operational scale and efficiency
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc Share Price Target 2030
Share Price Target 1
Share Price Target 2
$250
$375
Mature business model with predictable revenue streams from established customer relationships and service contracts
Potential for improved profitability metrics as the company optimizes its cost structure and operational efficiency
Continued innovation in logistics technology and supply chain solutions, maintaining a competitive advantage
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc Share Price Target 2035
Share Price Target 1
Share Price Target 2
$320
$480
Potential expansion into adjacent logistics services and supply chain management solutions
Established national presence with penetration into emerging regional markets
Long-term demographic trends favoring e-commerce growth and freight transportation demand
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc Share Price Target 2040
Share Price Target 1
Share Price Target 2
$400
$620
Note: Projections beyond 2030 become increasingly speculative due to changing economic cycles, technological disruption, and unpredictable market conditions. These targets represent potential scenarios based on the current business trajectory but should be viewed with appropriate caution.
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc Share Price Target 2050
Share Price Target 1
Share Price Target 2
$500
$800
Note: Forecasts extending to 2050 are highly speculative and subject to significant uncertainty. Technological breakthroughs in autonomous vehicles, competitive disruptions, or regulatory shifts could substantially alter the company’s trajectory over such an extended timeframe.
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc: Shareholding Pattern
Category
Percentage Holding
Institutional Investors
79.33%
Insiders
9.80%
Retail/Public
10.87%
Top 10 Institutional Shareholders
Shareholder Name
Percentage Ownership
Shares Held
Vanguard Group Inc
10.91%
22,851,995
BlackRock Inc
6.89%
14,435,716
T. Rowe Price Associates Inc
5.96%
12,462,449
Capital Research and Management Company
1.13%
2,370,053
Walter Scott & Partners Limited
1.42%
2,976,662
State Street Corporation
4.38%
9,175,000
Fidelity Management & Research
3.62%
7,580,000
Geode Capital Management LLC
2.33%
4,880,000
Norges Bank Investment Management
1.87%
3,920,000
Price T Rowe Associates Inc
1.65%
3,460,000
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc: Strengths vs Risks
Strengths:
Exceptional return on equity of 25% significantly outperforms industry peers, demonstrating superior capital allocation and operational efficiency
Industry-leading operating metrics with on-time delivery rates and service quality setting standards in LTL freight sector
Strong balance sheet with manageable debt levels and consistent cash flow generation supporting dividend payments and strategic investments
Extensive service center network providing comprehensive geographic coverage and operational flexibility
Family-led management with long-term strategic vision and proven track record of operational excellence
Risks:
The cyclical nature of the freight industry exposes the company to economic downturns and shipping demand fluctuations
Elevated valuation metrics with a P/E ratio of 40.00 and a P/B ratio of 9.10, making the stock vulnerable to market sentiment shifts
Intense competition from other LTL carriers and transportation alternatives in a consolidating industry
Regulatory scrutiny regarding driver hours, safety standards, and environmental compliance across jurisdictions
Limited dividend yield of 0.60%, providing minimal income for income-focused investors compared to other sectors
Investment Suitability
Factor
Assessment
Risk Profile
Moderate to High
Time Horizon
Long-term (5+ years)
Volatility
Moderate to High
Dividend/Income
Low (0.60% yield)
Ideal Investor
Growth-oriented investors with moderate risk tolerance seeking exposure to transportation and logistics sector with strong operational fundamentals
FAQs
The realistic share price target range for Old Dominion Freight Line in 2026 is between $175 and $220, depending on freight market recovery and execution against operational metrics.
The projected share price target range for Old Dominion Freight Line in 2030 is between $250 and $375, assuming successful navigation of cyclical challenges and return to growth trajectory.
Long-term projections beyond 2030 become increasingly speculative due to changing economic cycles, technological disruption, and unpredictable market conditions. Potential scenarios suggest ranges of $400–$620 for 2040 and $500–$800 for 2050, but these should be viewed cautiously.
Old Dominion Freight Line is a publicly traded company with approximately 79.33% institutional ownership, insider holdings of 9.80% including the Congdon family, and the remaining 10.87% held by retail investors.
Yes, Old Dominion Freight Line pays a quarterly dividend of $0.28 per share, resulting in an annual dividend of $1.12 and a dividend yield of around 0.60%, which is relatively low compared to high-yield sectors.
Recent share price fluctuations may be attributed to cyclical pressures in the freight market, including revenue declining about 3% and lower diluted EPS in recent quarters due to broader economic headwinds impacting shipping demand.
Old Dominion Freight Line is not debt-free but maintains manageable debt of about $850 million against roughly $1.25 billion in cash, resulting in a net cash position and a debt-to-equity ratio near 25%, providing strong financial flexibility.
Final Verdict
Old Dominion Freight Line presents a compelling long-term investment opportunity with exceptional operational metrics, strong market position, and proven management execution despite near-term cyclical challenges. The company’s industry-leading return on equity of 25% and operational excellence position it well for recovery as freight markets normalize. However, investors must carefully consider the elevated valuation multiples, cyclical nature of the business, and current headwinds in the shipping industry. The stock may appeal to growth-oriented investors with long-term horizons and tolerance for cyclical volatility, though those seeking immediate income or defensive exposure should exercise caution given the current business environment.
Hi, I’m Raj Mittal, a stock market content writer focused on company analysis, share price trends, and fundamental research. I create simple, research-based insights to help investors make smarter market decisions.
