Fertilisers and Chemicals Travancore Ltd (FACT) is India’s first large-scale fertiliser manufacturer, established in 1943 and headquartered in Kochi, Kerala. A public sector undertaking under the administrative control of the Department of Fertilizers, Ministry of Chemicals & Fertilizers, Government of India, FACT produces complex fertilisers, straight fertilisers, caprolactam (used in nylon production), and other agrochemicals. Despite its legacy and strategic importance, recent financial performance shows severe profit contraction and declining sales, raising concerns about operational efficiency and sustainability. This article provides a realistic outlook and share price targets for each year from 2026 to 2030, based on fundamentals and sector dynamics.
Business: Manufacturing of fertilisers (Factamfos, Ammonium Sulphate), caprolactam, and organic/bio-fertilisers
Ownership: 90% held by the Government of India (promoter); the rest by institutions and the public
Listed: Yes – on BSE (500157) and NSE (FACT)
Clarifications:
Is it dividend-paying? Technically yes—0.07% yield—but negligible due to weak profits.
Why did the share price fall? Despite strong historical brand value, sales dropped 19.8% and profits plunged 67.86% YoY due to input cost pressures and operational inefficiencies.
Future outlook: Tied to government fertiliser subsidies, urea policy reforms, and caprolactam demand—but execution risks remain high.
FACT: Key Financial Snapshot
Metric
Value
Market Capitalization
₹50,798.39 Cr
Current Share Price
₹784
52-Week High / Low
₹1,112 / ₹565
P/E (TTM)
1,816.82
P/B (TTM)
38.86
Book Value (TTM)
₹20.20
EPS (TTM)
₹0.43
ROE
3.02%
ROCE
11.30%
Dividend Yield
0.07%
Debt
₹1,282.73 Cr
Cash Reserves
₹2,777.37 Cr
Sales Growth (YoY)
–19.80%
Profit Growth (YoY)
–67.86%
Shareholding Pattern
Category
Holding (%)
Promoters (Govt of India)
90.00%
Domestic Institutions (DII)
9.02%
Public (Retail)
0.78%
Foreign Institutions (FII)
0.20%
Others
0%
Note: Extremely high promoter holding limits liquidity and market-driven re-rating.
FACT Share Price Target Forecast (2026–2030)
Given extreme P/E (1,816x), collapsing profits, and low ROE (3%), upside is severely limited unless earnings recover sharply. Targets assume:
EPS normalization by FY27 as subsidy flows stabilize
P/E compression from 1,816x to 30–40x over 3–4 years
No dividend payout until profitability stabilizes
Year
Target Price Range (₹)
2026
₹800 – ₹880
2027
₹840 – ₹940
2028
₹880 – ₹1,000
2029
₹920 – ₹1,060
2030
₹960 – ₹1,120
⚠️ Note: These are range-bound, conservative targets—not bullish projections. The stock lacks earnings visibility for aggressive re-rating.
Year-wise Breakdown
FACT Share Price Target 2026
Year
Target 1
Target 2
2026
₹800
₹880
Rationale: Near-term pressure from profit collapse caps upside. Support comes from high cash reserves and government backing.
FACT Share Price Target 2027
Year
Target 1
Target 2
2027
₹840
₹940
Rationale: Expected benefit from fertiliser subsidy clarity and potential caprolactam margin recovery.
FACT Share Price Target 2028
Year
Target 1
Target 2
2028
₹880
₹1,000
Rationale: By 2028, operating leverage may improve if debt/EBITDA normalizes. Still, valuation remains stretched.
FACT Share Price Target 2029
Year
Target 1
Target 2
2029
₹920
₹1,060
Rationale: Long-term play on India’s fertiliser self-reliance and import substitution—but execution risk remains high.
FACT Share Price Target 2030
Year
Target 1
Target 2
2030
₹960
₹1,120
Rationale: The upper end assumes sustained 10%+ ROCE, debt reduction, and peer-average P/B (8–10x).
Strengths vs Risks
✅ Strengths
Government ownership ensures policy support and survival
High cash reserves (₹2,777 Cr) provide a buffer
Strategic asset base in fertiliser and chemicals
⚠️ Risks
Extreme P/E (1,816x) with a negative earnings trend
ROE just 3%—indicates capital inefficiency
Sales and profit are both declining—operational stress is evident
Zero dividend appeal (0.07% yield)
Investment Suitability
Factor
Assessment
Risk Profile
Very High (turnaround story)
Time Horizon
Long-term (5+ years)
Volatility
Very High
Dividend/Income
None (0.07% yield)
Ideal Investor
Speculative investor betting on PSU revival; not for conservative portfolios
FAQs
A realistic range is ₹800 – ₹880, assuming no major deterioration in operations.
By 2030, it could reach ₹960 – ₹1,120 if profitability and ROE recover sustainably.
No—those levels are unrealistic. The stock trades above ₹780, so ₹40/₹50 likely confuses face value (₹10) with market price.
The Government of India holds 90% and controls the company.
Technically yes—but only 0.07% yield. Payout is negligible due to weak profits.
Due to 67.86% profit decline, 19.8% sales drop, and concerns about capital inefficiency, despite high cash reserves.
Only for high-risk investors who believe in a full PSU turnaround. Not suitable for safety-focused or income-seeking portfolios.
Final Verdict
FACT is a legacy PSU with severe near-term financial stress. Its current valuation (P/E >1,800x) is unjustifiable given collapsing profits and low returns. Our 2026–2030 price targets (₹800–₹1,120) reflect cautious optimism—contingent on earnings recovery and subsidy stability. Investors should wait for clear signs of operational turnaround before considering entry.
📌 Disclaimer: Price targets are estimates based on current fundamentals and sector trends. They are not investment advice. Please consult a SEBI-registered advisor.
Hi, I’m Raj Mittal, a stock market content writer focused on company analysis, share price trends, and fundamental research. I create simple, research-based insights to help investors make smarter market decisions.
