Granules India Ltd is a Hyderabad-based pharmaceutical company specializing in Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs), pharmaceutical intermediates, and finished dosages, with a strong presence in regulated markets like the US, Europe, and Japan. The company has built a reputation for quality manufacturing and regulatory compliance, operating multiple WHO-GMP and US-FDA-approved facilities. However, recent financial performance shows significant stress—marked by declining sales (-19.3%), falling profits (-27%), and rising debt—raising concerns about near-term execution. This article provides a balanced, fact-based outlook and realistic share price targets for each year from 2026 to 2030.
Geography: Exports to over 80 countries; ~50% revenue from the US
Ownership: Promoter holding at 38.82% – controlled by the K. Satyanarayana family
Listed: Yes – on BSE (532737) and NSE (GRANULES)
Clarifications:
Is Granules India debt-free? No – it carries ₹808.19 Cr in debt vs ₹170 Cr cash (net debt: ~₹638 Cr).
What sector is it in?Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology – specifically API and CDMO.
Is it a good buy? Only for high-risk, long-term investors who believe in its US market recovery and CDMO expansion. Not suitable now due to earnings decline.
Future prediction? Recovery hinges on FDA clearance, new ANDA approvals, and margin stabilization.
Big 3 in pharma? In India: Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy’s, and Cipla (by market cap and global reach).
Granules India: Key Financial Snapshot
Metric
Value
Market Capitalization
₹14,140.31 Cr
Current Share Price
₹582
52-Week High / Low
₹725 / ₹412
P/E (TTM)
35.73
P/B (TTM)
3.86
Book Value (TTM)
₹150.83
EPS (TTM)
₹16.31
ROE
9.85%
ROCE
11.70%
Dividend Yield
0.26%
Debt
₹808.19 Cr
Cash Reserves
₹170.34 Cr
Sales Growth (YoY)
–19.31%
Profit Growth (YoY)
–26.74%
Shareholding Pattern
Category
Holding (%)
Promoters
38.82%
Public (Retail)
30.15%
Domestic Institutions (DII)
17.48%
Foreign Institutions (FII)
13.55%
Others
0%
Note: Promoter holding has declined from ~42% in 2022, signaling gradual dilution.
Granules India Share Price Target Forecast (2026–2030)
Given the sharp profit decline, modest ROCE, and regulatory overhangs, upside is limited unless earnings rebound. Targets assume:
EPS recovery by FY28 through new product launches
P/E compression from 35x to 25–28x by 2030
Debt reduction via operating cash flows
Year
Target Price Range (₹)
2026
₹600 – ₹670
2027
₹630 – ₹720
2028
₹660 – ₹780
2029
₹690 – ₹840
2030
₹720 – ₹900
⚠️ Important: Even at ₹900 in 2030, P/E would be ~28x if EPS grows at 12% CAGR—reasonable only if US business stabilizes.
Year-wise Breakdown
Granules India Share Price Target 2026
Year
Target 1
Target 2
2026
₹600
₹670
Rationale: Near-term pressure from FDA warning letter (Gagillapur facility) and low capacity utilization. Upside is limited until Q4 FY26 shows recovery.
Granules India Share Price Target 2027
Year
Target 1
Target 2
2027
₹630
₹720
Rationale: Potential benefit from peptide CDMO acquisition and new ANDA approvals. However, competition in generic APIs remains intense.
Granules India Share Price Target 2028
Year
Target 1
Target 2
2028
₹660
₹780
Rationale: By 2028, if US revenue rebounds and debt/EBITDA falls below 2x, sentiment may improve. ROCE sustainability (~12%) supports modest re-rating.
Granules India Share Price Target 2029
Year
Target 1
Target 2
2029
₹690
₹840
Rationale: Long-term play on India’s API self-reliance push and global outsourcing trends. Execution risk remains high.
Granules India Share Price Target 2030
Year
Target 1
Target 2
2030
₹720
₹900
Rationale: The upper end assumes successful vertical integration, margin expansion, and diversification into complex generics. Still, valuation will likely remain below peers like Divis or Aurobindo.
Improving cash conversion cycle (from 207 to 122 days)
⚠️ Risks
Sales down 19%, profits down 27% YoY
Net debt of ₹638 Cr – interest burden rising
Low ROCE (11.7%) vs capital-intensive business
Minimal dividends (0.26% yield)
Investment Suitability
Factor
Assessment
Risk Profile
High (earnings volatility)
Time Horizon
Long-term (5+ years)
Volatility
High
Dividend/Income
None (0.26% yield)
Ideal Investor
Aggressive investor betting on pharma recovery and US turnaround
FAQs
Not at current levels. Wait for two consecutive quarters of sales/profit growth before considering entry.
Recovery depends on FDA resolution, new product launches, and debt management. Realistic 2030 target: ₹720–₹900.
No – it has ₹808 Cr debt and only ₹170 Cr cash.
Pharmaceuticals – specifically APIs, formulations, and CDMO services.
In India: Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy’s, and Cipla (by global scale and market leadership).
Final Verdict
Granules India is a quality pharma player facing near-term headwinds. Its strategic focus on complex generics and CDMO offers long-term optionality, but current financials do not justify aggressive buying. Our 2026–2030 price targets (₹600–₹900) reflect cautious optimism—contingent on operational recovery. Avoid until earnings stabilize.
📌 Disclaimer: Price targets are estimates based on current fundamentals and sector trends. They are not investment advice. Please consult a SEBI-registered advisor.
Hi, I’m Raj Mittal, a stock market content writer focused on company analysis, share price trends, and fundamental research. I create simple, research-based insights to help investors make smarter market decisions.
